At the height of an extreme rainfall event, an officer managing a reservoir in Keralam may have to decide whether, when, and how much water to release. The reservoir level is displayed on the screen before him. But much of the other information relevant to that decision may be held in different systems and by different institutions.

That, in a single image, captures an important part of Keralam’s flood-management challenge. The question is increasingly not whether the State of Keralam has data, but whether the right pieces of information can be brought together quickly enough to support timely and informed decisions.

Vast improvements in the State

Keralam has considerably greater monitoring capability today than it did in 2018 (a year of severe flooding in the State). The Kerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA) reported that 100 Automated Weather Stations were operational by December 2025. The Centre for Water Resources Development and Management (CWRDM) has developed the Reservoir Assessment Tool-Kerala, which uses satellite-derived storage estimates and modelled inflows to provide near-real-time information on reservoir conditions. The Kerala State Electricity Board (KSEB) and the Water Resources Department maintain reservoir-level and discharge data; the India Meteorological Department (IMD) provides weather and rainfall forecasts; and the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) forecasts waves, currents, swells and tides.

The information exists. The larger challenge is interoperability.

There are lessons from 2018. The floods in 2018 demonstrated why a river basin must be understood as a connected system. Extreme rainfall was the principal driver, but what happened downstream depended on the volume of runoff, reservoir conditions, tributary flows and the capacity of rivers, lakes and outlets to carry the accumulated water.

The Central Water Commission (CWC)’s study of the 2018 floods provides a striking example. Between August 15 and 17, it estimated that approximately 1.63 billion cubic metres (BCM) of runoff was generated by the Pamba, Manimala, Achenkovil and Meenachil river systems, against an estimated carrying capacity of about 0.6 BCM in Vembanad Lake. The CWC also identified the then discharge capacity of the Thottappally spillway — about 630 cubic metres per second — as a major constraint. As a result, around 1 BCM of runoff remained within the system, contributing to rising water levels in the lake and surrounding areas.

Keralam’s Irrigation Department notes that Thottappally was designed for a discharge of about 1,800 cubic metres per second, but siltation in the downstream channel can reduce its effective capacity substantially.

The lesson is important. A release that appears manageable at a reservoir cannot be assessed in isolation from conditions many kilometres downstream. Water does not recognise departmental boundaries.

From databases to a decision network

Keralam may therefore not need another stand-alone portal or database, but rather a secure interoperability layer that connects the systems it already has.

Such an architecture need not take ownership of the underlying data. Individual agencies could continue to own and operate their sensors, models and databases. Instead, a read-only integration layer could map the relationships among them in a machine-readable format. Which rainfall stations feed which catchments? Which catchments feed which reservoirs? Where will a release travel? What other flows will join it? Which settlements and critical infrastructure lie downstream? What is the river’s current carrying capacity, including that of its outlets? And what will the coastal conditions be when the water reaches the sea?

Every input should retain its source, timestamp and confidence level. Hydrological and hydraulic models must remain scientifically validated, and institutional responsibility clearly assigned.

Modern data architectures, knowledge graphs and carefully governed Artificial Intelligence (AI) make such integration increasingly feasible. But AI should come last, not first. Without trusted data and validated relationships, AI merely processes uncertainty faster.

Technology must also address an institutional problem. Sharing operational information across departments raises legitimate questions about ownership, reliability, accountability and liability. A properly designed system can help address these concerns by maintaining an auditable decision trail: what information was available at a particular moment, which models were consulted, what warnings were generated, and why a particular recommendation emerged.

‘The objective should never be to hand control of dam gates to a machine. Statutory authority and responsibility must remain with designated officials.

THE HINDU/VIBHU H.

Such a record improves accountability, but it can also protect an officer who made a reasonable, evidence-based decision under difficult conditions. The objective should never be to hand control of dam gates to a machine. Statutory authority and responsibility must remain with designated officials. Technology should give them a better common operating picture.

Start with one basin

Keralam need not attempt to build a State-wide system immediately. The Pamba basin offers a logical test bed because it encompasses many of the relationships such a system must understand: high-range rainfall and catchments, reservoirs, downstream river reaches, the low-lying Kuttanad region, Thottappally, and, ultimately, the sea.

KSDMA, the Water Resources Department, KSEB, CWRDM and relevant meteorological, oceanographic and technology institutions could jointly build and independently validate a limited pilot.

Its test should be practical: if a specified quantity of water is released from a reservoir now, where will it travel, when will it reach critical locations, what other flows will it encounter, and what will the downstream and coastal conditions be when it arrives? Can every answer identify its source and level of confidence?

If such a pilot works, it can be extended basin by basin. If it fails, its weaknesses will have been discovered before committing the State to a large technology programme.

Keralam already has scientific institutions, sensors, forecasts, reservoir information, computing capabilities, and experienced administrators. Its next technological leap in flood management may therefore be less about generating more data and more about making the data it already possesses work together.

As extreme weather becomes more unpredictable, that distinction may become increasingly important.

Ameer Ahamed is the Founder of the Manappat Foundation which was involved in 2018 flood rehabilitation works through the Paravoor Punarjani Project