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Business News›News›India›El Niño puts India on track for its driest monsoon since 2009

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El Niño puts India on track for its driest monsoon since 2009
Synopsis

India is set to face its driest monsoon in 17 years as El Niño curtails rainfall. This deficit threatens crop yields and increases food price risks across the nation. Forecasters predict a significant rainfall shortfall for the current monsoon season. The government is taking measures to manage rising food costs and ensure supplies. Farmers depend on these rains for irrigation and their livelihoods.

India is on course for its driest monsoon in 17 years as a strengthening El Niño curbs rainfall, threatening crop yields and raising food-price risks.



Cumulative rainfall during the June to September monsoon season is 15% below the long-term average so far, according to the India Meteorological Department. If the deficit persists, it would be the weakest monsoon since 2009, when precipitation was 18% below normal. The weather office had forecast a 10% shortfall for this season back in May.



Conditions may become favorable for a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal in the last week of September, said Christian Werner, managing director of Australia-based consultancy Global Weather Climate Analytics. That could potentially bring much-needed rain to eastern and northeastern India, mitigating the deficit there, he added.

Bloomberg

Forecasters and academics are also placing bets on India’s monsoon through a specialty prediction platform at Lancaster University in the UK, known by its acronym CRUCIAL. With less than two weeks of monsoon remaining, the platform is assigning a 68% chance that the season will end with a rainfall deficit of 10% to 20%, according to founder and planetary scientist Mark Roulston.

Adequate monsoon rains are crucial for the hundreds of millions of Indian farmers who depend on the seasonal precipitation to irrigate fields in the country, which is among the world’s biggest producers of rice, sugar and cotton. The season accounts for most of India’s annual rainfall.

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El Niño Indiafood price inflation Indiaindia monsoon 2026drought conditions Indiamonsoon rainfall deficitcrop yield impactIndia Meteorological DepartmentQuantEco economist

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