India’s 2026 southwest monsoon ended with 759.4 mm of rain, 12.6% below the 868.6 mm normal, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday. At 87% of the Long Period Average (LPA), this is the lowest rainfall recorded during the monsoon season since 2015, which was a tad drier at 758.2 mm.

The east and northeast region, which recorded 1,017.1 mm of rainfall, had its driest monsoon since 1901, or since the IMD started to keep systematic records.

June rains fell short

However, its regional and monthly forecasts were much farther off the mark. June, which got only 65% of normal rainfall, was far drier than the 92% forecast. July rainfall, which was expected to be below 94%, ended up with 1% more, thanks to rains in central India, which got 33% more rain than normal. August came in at 84% of the LPA, in line with the “below 94%” that was forecast. September, at 92.4% finished a little above the forecast of “below 91%”.

IMD director general M. Mohapatra told journalists on Wednesday that the IMD’s predictions matched conditions in “many regions, except some parts of northwest and adjoining central India”.

Diminishing trend in the east

The largest deviations from normal rainfall were in east and northeast India (25.6% below normal). Mr. Mohapatra said that there was a “marked trend” of diminishing rainfall in this region “in recent years”. Rainfall in the southern peninsula was 24.3% below normal, and at 542 mm, this was the fourth lowest monsoon rainfall recorded in the region since 1901. Northwest India ended 5.9% below normal and central India stood at 2.6% below normal, according to an IMD statement.

Punjab, Arunachal Pradesh, and the Assam & Meghalaya subdivisions were rain-deficient in every month from June to September. Nationally, 17 of 36 subdivisions (covering 42% of the country’s land area) saw deficient rainfall, 18 were normal, and one had excess rain. Of 741 districts assessed, 282 were deficient and 34 were “large deficient”.

Hotter, drier October expected

The southwest monsoon this year is in the process of withdrawal and is likely to completely exit within the first weeks of October, Mr. Mohapatra said. The country will then see the advent of the northeast monsoon.

With the El Nino still gaining strength, rainfall for the country in October is likely to be below 85% of the LPA of about 75.4 mm. Most regions are expected to get below-normal rain, except parts of northwest India, southern peninsular India, and isolated pockets of the east, which may see normal to above-normal rain.

“Parts of Punjab, Haryana and northern states may see good rainfall because, in El Nino years, western disturbances are likely to increase. We’ve seen some good rain in these regions in the last week and this means soil-moisture is high, which will help the forthcoming winter crop,” Mr. Mohapatra added.

Maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to be above normal across most of the country. The exceptions are in parts of the northeast, where normal to below-normal minimums are likely, and pockets of central and northwest India, where normal maximums are expected.