Climate change makes this more complicated. Western disturbances, extra-tropical rain-bearing systems, have been bringing more rain to India in the monsoon months, while southern India seems more vulnerable to El Niño-triggered volatility. This is reflected in kharif sowing. On July 10, kharif sowing trailed last year’s by 16%; by early September the gap had narrowed to under 2%. Karnataka has declared drought in well over a 100 taluks and Maharashtra in 265 of 358, though the national deficit of about 12% is below the Centre’s 20% threshold for an ‘agricultural drought.’ The IMD expects El Niño to strengthen and bring below normal rain over most of the country from October to December, threatening soil moisture and reservoir recharge. The Cabinet has lifted wheat’s support price by ₹25 a quintal and mustard’s by ₹413, nudging diversification. Given the consequences of IMD’s forecasts, it should improve its sub-regional forecast systems and not shy from being the bearer of ill-news, if needed.