Like the previous cycle showed, even a record triple-digit Asian Games spike doesn’t necessarily translate into double-digit Olympics success

Updated on: Sep 18, 2026, 16:17:50 IST

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Three years ago, in the run-up to the Asian Games, promotional campaigns in India carried a catchy phrase: “Iss baar sau paar (this time over 100)”. It appeared a tad audacious but when the Indian contingent’s medals did cross that tally, it marked a substantial leap.

If 2023 Hangzhou was about scaling unchartered heights, 2026 Aichi-Nagoya will be a test of staying power for India, which harbours ambitions of hosting the Olympics in a decade.

And as Japan tackles a shaky prelude of accommodation hassles and typhoon threats to the 20th Asian Games, Indian athletes will seek to reinforce the country’s status among the top four Asian sporting nations once the show begins on Saturday.

Matching the Hangzhou high, or bettering it, will take some doing from the current jumbo contingent that will compete across 36 disciplines.

Three years ago, India’s record medal haul of 106 (it was 107 before one medal was scratched over a doping offence) propelled it to fourth in the medals tally. The return was significantly higher than the 2018 edition’s 70, and the position a sizable jump up from eighth. It cemented India’s growing status in the continental multi-sport event, only behind Asian powerhouses China, Japan and South Korea.

Much water has flown under the bridge in the new Olympic cycle after the 2024 Paris Games.

More than half of the 28 Indian gold medallists from Hangzhou, excluding team events and sports, will not be in Aichi-Nagoya. That includes javelin throw holders , the only two individual women champion shooters and one half of the triumphant mixed compound team, archery’s new Olympic event.

Athletics (29 medals, 6 gold), shooting (22, 7) and archery (9, 5) were the biggest drivers of the Indian medal rush in 2023, and India’s performance in 2026 will depend a lot on these disciplines again. The shooting squad has been through a churn since 2023, not leaving even the women’s 50m rifle 3P gold medallist with the then world record score, Sift Kaur Samra, untouched. This rifle and pistol troop has a host of Asian Games debutants, perhaps India’s strongest women’s pistol teams ever – featuring two-time Paris Olympic medallist Manu Bhaker and 25m world record holder Esha Singh – and one of the most exciting young talents in pistol, Suruchi Singh. “In team events some medals are a sure bet for us, it’s just a question of colour,” said India’s rifle coach Deepali Deshpande. “This time, the number of golds should be higher.”

Track and field will be without India’s most celebrated gold medallist, the injured Neeraj Chopra. The onus will be on some others to step up; this year’s Glasgow Commonwealth Games, from where Indian athletes returned double-digit medals, was a positive sign. Among its chief architects, Gulveer Singh, who produced a memorable distance double, decathlon history-setter Tejaswin Shankar and jumpers Murali Sreeshankar and Sarvesh Kushare will be out looking for a podium finish again.

The momentum of India’s compound archers in 2023 glided them to a historic gold sweep. Only one, triple gold medallist Jyothi Surekha Vennam, from that sensational squad of six remains to defend the titles. The most crucial defence will be of the mixed team event, which will debut at the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics. With compound getting the Olympic tag, other Asian nations such as China and South Korea, traditional recurve dominators, have started to catch up in the discipline.

“Not only with India, but even with the world,” admitted Jyothi.

At the Asian level, a few other sports continue to be bankable gold bets for India — hockey (men’s), kabaddi and cricket, which will feature men’s teen sensation Vaibhav Sooryavanshi in his first multi-sport experience.

Another teen talent will be the cynosure of all eyes from an Indian viewpoint in squash, which fetched the country five medals in Hangzhou. Anahat Singh, the world junior champion at 18, will be seeking her first individual Asiad medal. Against two higher-ranked Asians, the gold will be a telling upgrade, and will carry the reward of a spot at the LA Games.

The Olympics are a crucial subplot of the Asian Games narrative. Early Olympic quotas for 2028 will be on offer in sports such as hockey, archery and squash, while in sports like wrestling, boxing, weightlifting, badminton and table tennis, the continental event is a greater test and a clearer testament to where Indians stand when seen through a larger Olympics lens.

Like the previous cycle and India’s six-medal Paris Games showed, even a record triple-digit Asian Games spike doesn’t necessarily translate into double-digit Olympics success. Keeping up to that high Asian standard in Japan, though, will be the first key checkpoint of this cycle.

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