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Trump may miss the Nobel, but may shape who wins

By Sohail Khan 1 October 2026, 12:09 pm

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Business News›News›International›World News›Trump will not win this year's Nobel Peace Prize, but he may influence who does

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Trump will not win this year's Nobel Peace Prize, but he may influence who does
Synopsis

This year's Nobel Peace Prize is anticipated to avoid controversial choices due to Trump's influence. Experts believe awarding the prize could increase the pressure on the laureate from Trump. Possible candidates include Pope Leo and Francesca Albanese for their advocacy work. While some suggest safer choices like Save the Children, there's pressure to support liberal democracy and human rights. The final decision will be announced on October 9.

US President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., US, September 30, 2026.

US President Donald Trump will not win this year's Nobel Peace Prize as he wages war with Iran, but his influence will still be felt by the awarding body that picks the laureate, according to experts.

Last year's award, to Venezuela's Maria Corina Machado, was unique in the prize's 125-year history, coming amid repeated lobbying by Trump to get the award. Weeks later, Machado gave her gold Nobel medal to Trump, in a bid to win support for her efforts for a democratic Venezuela.

This year, the five-strong body will be mindful of picking someone who can withstand pressure from Trump, according to Haakon Gjerloew, acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo.

Leo, the first US-born pope, has said he would continue to speak out against war, after the president called him "weak" for criticising the US conflict with Iran.

The Pope's encyclical on AI, his advocacy for dialogue and the peaceful resolution of conflicts, his calls for respect for migrants and his humanitarian work could justify a prize.

"The Pope stands (for) more than just as a religious figure. He has emerged as a leading thought leader," Karim Haggag, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, told Reuters.

Italy's Albanese, meanwhile, has been under fire from the US and Israel for her criticism of Israel's conduct of its war against Hamas in Gaza and the occupation of the West Bank.

SAFE CHOICE INSTEAD?

To be sure, last year's shock events could have the opposite effect on the committee: go for a safe, uncontroversial choice less likely to antagonise Trump, who blamed Norway, where the award is decided, for not giving him the accolade last time.

Also Read: Trump has just fired the starting gun on a new Cold War with China

That could mean recognising Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms, a Sudanese network of community groups providing aid during the civil war, or non-governmental group Save the Children for helping children in conflicts.

But the committee is also under scrutiny to address Trump's challenges to the international order the committee cherishes, said Oeivind Stenersen, a historian who has written about the Nobel Peace Prize.

"They have a certain pressure … to be tough against Trump," he told Reuters. "In this serious international situation, this year calls for a Peace Prize in defence of liberal democracy, international law and human rights."

This could mean honouring the ICC at a time when Washington is preparing sweeping sanctions against the global tribunal, according to sources, while an award to the ICJ would support respecting the sovereignty of nation-states and resolving disputes peacefully.

Trump has reportedly been nominated by the leaders of Cambodia, Israel and Pakistan, but his chances were "quite low", according to Gjerloew.

Trump's pressure on the Norwegian Nobel Committee has stunned many, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Ressa, a Filipino and American journalist, who said she watched last year with "horror".

"Bullies don't run the world," she told Reuters during a visit to Oslo in September. "There are standards we live by. Might doesn't make it right."

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Trump Nobel Peace Prize 2023Nobel Peace Prize contendersPope Leo Nobel Peace Prize nominationInternational Criminal Court Nobel Prize 2023Maria Corina Machado Nobel PrizeTrump influence on Nobel CommitteePeace Research Institute Oslo

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