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First, the 10-year treasury yield has risen to its highest level since 2007. The immediate impact is a narrowing of the India-US yield spread to around 200 basis points, limiting the scope for further inflows compared with periods when spreads were wider. Higher yields also raise fiscal risks by increasing borrowing costs, especially for long-tenor issuances that lock in elevated costs for decades. Over the longer term, they point both to concerns about US fiscal and debt sustainability and to uncertainty around the AI infrastructure boom. They may also signal a broader “higher for longer” environment, closer to the pre-2000s market setting. India will therefore need to navigate these cross-currents carefully.

On the issue of the Fed’s rate hikes, the question now is: How long will this cycle last? Since inflation in the US is closer to the 2 per cent target than in the previous cycle, this one may be shorter. Even so, short-end rates are likely to stay elevated, reinforcing yield pressures through spreads, currency, and liquidity. But, India’s economy is much more resilient than in earlier episodes of high yields and rising rates in the US. The 10-year sensitivity has fallen sharply from 1.25 in 2013 to 0.43 in 2026. This points to an economy more resilient to external volatility. What explains this, and why does it matter?

Several factors explain this resilience. India’s macro fundamentals are perhaps at their strongest in decades: The fiscal deficit is on a glide path toward 4 per cent, inflation is within the target band, the current account is stable, and reserves remain ample, especially after the FCNR (B) scheme. Retail participation has risen sharply, while domestic institutional investors have overtaken foreign institutional investors in ownership, deepening India’s domestic capital base and therefore reducing the impact on capital flow volatility. There is palpable dynamism in the economy that has been the largest contributor to global growth in the last few years. These strengths provide comfort, though important concerns remain.

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First, considering the high yields, the possibility of an AI bubble bursting is a distinct possibility, and therefore an important risk. India’s exposure should be analysed carefully. Second, the US-Iran geopolitical conflict remains a major constraint for India, especially with respect to the price of oil and a variety of other goods imported from the Middle East. Each spike in Brent crude oil prices raises imported inflation, weakens the Indian rupee, and pushes yields higher. With the US Fed hiking, India has little room to absorb that pressure. Relief can also come quickly, as when Brent fell to about $98 per barrel and the 10-year bond yield eased toward 7 per cent. But even then, Fed tightening could keep a floor under yields. Third, state financing through the bond market needs to be monitored carefully, especially given that many of them tend to borrow in the later part of the year. State borrowing costs have risen with recent SDL auctions clearing between roughly 7.3 per cent and 7.9 per cent.

These risks need to be carefully monitored. But with strong macroeconomic fundamentals, India does have the capacity to withstand changes in the global environment, if it plays its cards well.

Balasubramanian is an economist and Loungani is director of the Applied Economics Programme at Johns Hopkins. Views are personal