Business

Can October turn the tide for Indian stocks after September rout?

By Sohail Khan 1 October 2026, 5:32 am

Benchmarks
Nifty22,620.45-95.75

FEATURED FUNDS★★★★★

Motilal Oswal Midcap Fund Direct-Growth

5Y Return
20.13 %

Invest Now

Enter search text:

Business News›Markets›Stocks›News›Can October turn the tide for Indian stocks after September rout?

Read Today's Paper

Can October turn the tide for Indian stocks after September rout?
Synopsis

As investors approach October, the landscape is shaped by high crude oil prices, increasing bond yields, and continued foreign selling. Historically, October has favored positive market returns, yet recent downturns could challenge this pattern. With the earnings season on the horizon, corporate profitability, particularly within large-cap stocks, will be under scrutiny.

Listen to this article in summarized format

Loading…
×
×

Unlock AI Briefing and Premium Content

New Year Offer 24 Hours Left
Already a member? Sign In

What's Included

Exclusive Stories
Daily ePaper Access
Smart Market Tools
Curated Investment Ideas
Ad-lite Experience
Subscription

Usual October cheer could be missing after rout last month<br> — This year, however, seasonality may offer only limited comfort after a sharp September selloff.

Mumbai: Investors heading into October will have to weigh a historically favourable month for equities against a challenging backdrop of elevated crude oil prices, rising global bond yields, continued foreign selling and a weak rupee. October has typically been a good month for Indian stocks, with the Nifty 50 ending higher in seven of the past 10 years.

This year, however, seasonality may offer only limited comfort after a sharp September selloff.

"October will be an important test of whether the correction in September has adequately priced in risks, or whether further adjustment is required," said Tejas Shah, director and head of trading at Equirus Securities.

ET Bureau

The Sensex and Nifty fell 6% each in September, while the BSE MidCap 150 and BSE SmallCap 250 indices dropped 6.6% and 3.2%, respectively. These declines are their worst monthly fall since March, when both the indices tumbled 11%.

October has historically been a stronger month for equities, partly as investors factor in expectations of higher festive-season spending on automobiles, jewellery and consumer durables.

Read more: Nithin Kamath reveals Zerodha's leadership secret: Why the broker rarely hires outsiders for top jobs

"The basic underlying common thread is the start of the festive season," said Sunny Agrawal, head – fundamental retail research, SBI Securities. "For most sectors, the second half of the fiscal year is better in terms of the demand environment and volume growth. That may be one of the reasons why October has historically been a stronger month."

The September-quarter earnings season starting in October will be closely watched for signs of an improvement in corporate profitability, particularly among large-cap stocks that have underperformed in the recent correction. Over the past decade, the Sensex and Nifty have delivered average October gains of around 1%, while the BSE MidCap 150 and BSE SmallCap 250 have averaged gains of around 1% and 1.4%, respectively.

Read more: GIFT City eyes direct listings without IPO to deepen equity market, says IFSCA's Pradeep Ramakrishnan

Notwithstanding the seasonal cheer, analysts said the Nifty faces strong hurdles around the 23,000 zone, a key support that was broken in the recent sell-off. The index closed at 22,620.45 on Wednesday. The silver lining is that the market may be at oversold levels.

"The earlier support of 23,000-23,100 should now act as a key resistance," said Agrawal. "The moment the market can take out that level, I think the market should start looking positive. The next hurdle would be around 23,600."

A rebound in banks will be crucial for the markets to notch up gains in October this time.

"Banking and financial services will also remain crucial, as private banks, financial services and Bank Nifty have historically shown relatively strong October seasonality and carry a significant weight in the Nifty," Shah said. "Any renewed buying in this space could provide a meaningful boost to the broader market," he added.

Add as a Reliable and Trusted News Source
Add Now!

(You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)

(What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news, stock tips, Budget 2025, Share Market on Budget 2025 and expert advice, on ETMarkets. Also, ETMarkets.com is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .)

Top Trending Stocks: SBI Share Price, Axis Bank Share Price, HDFC Bank Share Price, Infosys Share Price, Wipro Share Price, NTPC Share Price

…moreless

(You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)

Read More News on
October stock market trendsNifty 50 performanceSensex analysisEquirus Securitiescrude oil prices effectnifty

Top Trending Stocks: SBI Share Price, Axis Bank Share Price, HDFC Bank Share Price, Infosys Share Price, Wipro Share Price, NTPC Share Price

…moreless

Enter search text:

BrowseCompanies:
ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
123456789

Continue reading with one of these options:
Limited Access
Free
Login to get access to some exclusive stories

& personalised newsletters
Login Now

Unlimited Access
Starting @ Rs120/month
Get access to exclusive stories, expert opinions &

in-depth stock reports
Subscribe Now

Unlock Access to All Exclusives with ETPrime FREE TRIAL

15 Days Free: Unlock All ETPrime Exclusives, Market Tools & ePapers

Trial offer expiring in00 : 05 : 00

I'd rather pay ₹2599 now

Uh-oh! This is an exclusive story available for selected readers only.

Worry not. You’re just a step away.

Prime Account Detected!

It seems like you're already an ETPrime member with

Log out of your current logged-in account and log in again using your ET Prime credentials to enjoy all member benefits.

Unlock ETPrime's Exclusive Stories Today!

Subscribe to gain powerful insights on business, stock market and industry trends.

Big Price Drop! Flat 40% Off

Student Only Offer

Already a Member? Sign In now

Already a Member? Sign In now
Already a Member? Sign In now

Offer Exclusively For You

Save up to Rs. 700/-

ON ET PRIME MEMBERSHIP

Avail Offer

Offer Exclusively For You

Get 1 Year Free

With 1 and 2-Year ET prime membership

Avail Offer

Offer Exclusively For You

Get 1 Year Free

With 1 and 2-Year ET prime membership

Avail Offer

Offer Exclusively For You

Get Flat 40% Off

Then ₹ 1749 for 1 year

Avail Offer

Offer Exclusively For You

ET Prime at ₹ 49 for 1 month

Then ₹ 1749 for 1 year

Avail Offer

Special Offer

Get flat 40% off on ETPrime

Avail Offer
Avail Offer

Claim NowAlready a Member? Sign In now

Need Assistance?

Connect with an ETPrime expert for personalized support and guidance

+91 9484700004

' + h3 + '

' + h4 + '

' + listing + '

What’s Included with

ETPrime Membership

1Exclusive Insights That Matter

Uncover the truth with our investigative stories

Make strategic moves using the real-world case studies

Read industry-specific stories to identify emerging trends

Spot opportunities with in-depth insights that matter

Trump temper on H-1B visas is forcing Indians to do these things to stay put in US

What Adani’s US indictment means for India Inc’s overseas fundraising
Why veterans like Reliance, L&T are on acquisition spree? Aswath Damodaran has an answer.

Will China’s dollar bond sale in Saudi Arabia trump the US in financial world?
Huawei launches its own OS to compete with Google and Apple. But can it win beyond China?

The problem with lab grown diamonds
Why a falling rupee is a better option for the economy

A list of top 20 momentum stocks that have delivered massive returns in one year