The political dominance of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which appeared almost unassailable after 2014, is beginning to show cracks. The 2024 general election was an important setback: the party lost its parliamentary majority and had to depend on its allies to form the government. Since then, disillusionment has acquired greater political salience through youth protests, rising prices, unemployment and failures of governance, particularly irregularities in the education and examination systems. To these can be added the defeat of the Constitutional Amendment Bill on delimitation and women’s reservation in April, the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) protests that led to the resignation of the then Union Education Minister and the complete washout of the monsoon session of Parliament, as both the Prime Minister and Home Minister stayed away. Questions over accountability for the excessive police action against student protesters on July 20, compounded by the absence of the two leaders from Parliament, reinforced the impression of a government unwilling to answer for its actions.

But these setbacks do not by themselves amount to an erosion of hegemony. The BJP remains a formidable political force, retaining a substantial electoral base and considerable ideological appeal. What is now at issue is whether the forces that produced the BJP’s dominance are beginning to encounter limits. Uttar Pradesh is where this can be most clearly tested.