Mumbai ended August with a rainfall deficit, receiving just 35 per cent of its monthly average amid strengthening El Niño conditions and inactive weather systems, making it South Mumbai’s second-driest August in a decade.

For September, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted below-normal rainfall and a rise in maximum temperature. The IMD said Mumbai is likely to continue receiving drizzle in the coming days, bringing respite to the city.

After a prolonged wet spell in July, Mumbai and the extended metropolitan region saw only patchy spells of drizzle in August, with heavy rainfall largely eluding the city.

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IMD data showed that the Santacruz observatory recorded 318 mm rainfall between August 1 and 31 morning, 57 per cent of its August average of 560.8 mm. Colaba recorded 164.2 mm, against its average of 471.9 mm, a deficit of 65 per cent.

The dry spell made August the second-driest in South Mumbai in a decade. The driest was 2023, when Colaba recorded 111 mm, followed by 2018 with 188 mm.

This marked a sharp reversal from July, when Mumbai received 66 per cent more rainfall than its monthly average.

Mahesh Palawat of Skymet Weather Services attributed the deficit to the absence of weather systems and strengthening El Niño conditions.

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“In the month of July, active weather systems were present in the central Bay of Bengal which developed and brought rainfall to the western coast. However, after the first week of August, weather systems developed in North Bay of Bengal, which travelled and brought rain activity to the north-west region, and left the west coast region of Maharashtra, Gujarat amongst others deficient in rain,” Palawat said.

The IMD said strong El Nino conditions were prevailing over the equatorial Pacific, with above-normal sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific. El Niño is associated with weakening southwest monsoon winds and below-average rainfall in India.

Mumbai has received 2,224 mm of rainfall since June. The average for June-September is 2,390.5 mm at Santacruz and 2,102 mm at Colaba.