All wasn’t well with Aryna Sabalenka before she reached New York last month. Early exits at Wimbledon, Toronto and Cincinnati preceded her three-peat bid. She said it “wasn’t the best period” and that she’s “been dealing with several things”. A fortnight later, things seem dealt with.

Her 7-5, 6-2 semifinal dismantling of home favourite Jessica Pegula bore proof. Sabalenka was flawless in the second set, leaving Pegula with no breathing room. The ousted third seed assessed it succintly: “I do think she probably would have beaten 99% of people… Probably the best match she’s played this year.”

Come Saturday, even Sabalenka’s best could face a stern test. Her opponent Elena Rybakina is out to set her US Open record straight.

Story continues below.
Subscribe to see fewer ads.

She’d not gone beyond the fourth round at Flushing Meadows in seven previous campaigns. This time, she was in a race against time, having suffered a left ankle injury in Cincinnati. Not only did the Kazakh recover, she made the final and wrested the world No.1 crown from Sabalenka.

Elena Rybakina, of Kazakhstan in action.

Rybakina ended her 99-week reign with a come-from-behind win over Qinwen Zheng in the quarters. She rallied again to send No.4 Coco Gauff packing. The revitalized Belarusian, playing her fourth successive US Open final, now awaits. Expect fireworks.

Big serving

Rybakina is known for her massive serve. She has sent down 357 aces this year, as compared to Sabalenka’s 236. When on song, this weapon gives her service games an extra solidity.

Sabalenka, serve, though not as big as Rybakina’s, has improved considerably over the years. It used to be a weak aspect of her game until 2023, when she worked with a biomechanics specialist to remodel her motion and toss. She has won 71 per cent of her first-serve points in 2026 versus Rybakina’s 73.4 per cent.

Story continues below this ad

The return of serve thus becomes pivotal in the summit clash. Sabalenka has the upper hand in this metric. She has won 44.6 per cent of her return points this year, while Rybakina has garnered 42.3 per cent. Nevertheless, the soon-to-be world No.1’s booming serves could dictate terms in the high-stakes match.

If Sabalenka is unable to break her for an extended period, frustration could creep in, as it did during their Australian Open meeting this January. Rybakina had won 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 then.

Both players recognise the importance of the Rybakina serve. Sabalenka acknowledged after her semifinal that the title fight would be tough, given how big a server Rybakina is. The Russia-born Kazakh, on the other hand, said she would have serve better than she did against Gauff if she is to challenge the top seed.

“I will need to come with all the energy I will have, bring my best serve against Aryna and, yeah, make the right decisions in the right moment, because most of the times it’s tight, tight score. This is where the decision makes a difference,” Rybakina added.

Story continues below this ad

Ground strokes key

Then there are the groundstrokes. Sabalenka definitely has the advantage in this facet, on paper at least. Her clean, all-power shotmaking from the baseline is second to none on hardcourts. It has been at the heart of her deep runs in Melbourne and New York, where she has snared all four of her Major titles.

Rybakina, too is dangerous from the baseline. Her groundstrokes are not as powerful as Sabalenka but tend to be flatter, heavier. This gives her a tactical edge on grass, the fastest surface on tour. But when it comes to hardcourts, she knows the 28-year-old has the edge.

Elena Rybakina, of Kazakhstan in action.

And so we might witness a mental battle, as much as a physical one. Rybakina would be desperate to land her returns outside Sabalenka’s hitting zone, especially on the forehand side. The latter, meanwhile, would try to shorten the rallies, relying on her explosive ball-striking and placement. As the rallies lengthen, Rybakina would be able to match Sabalenka more evenly from the baseline.

“We push each other when we play these matches, and you clearly can see on what you need to work more. I think that’s great that you play against someone who pushes you until the limits,” Rybakina said on her intriguing duel with Sabalenka.

Story continues below this ad

The defending champion agreed in spirit, predicting a gruelling showdown. “She (Rybakina) has really improved over the years on the baseline game, so it’s going to be a physically and mentally tough match,” Sabalenka said.


“As I said, I’m ready for the fight. I’m ready to do everything to get the win.”