Old wine, new bottle

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Araghchi said that the latest proposal builds on the commitments that both Iran and the US agreed to in a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in June. Iranian officials said that the new proposal, while similar to the MoU, was designed to move at a much faster pace.

On paper, the June agreement had granted a 60-day extension to a ceasefire that was announced in April. The hope was that during this period, even as the two countries negotiated the terms of a final agreement, the US would issue waivers for Iranian oil exports while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that accounted for a fifth of global oil flows before the West Asia war began — would gradually return to prewar levels. The agreement also said that Iran and Oman would “determine” how to administer maritime traffic through the Strait.

The MoU, which was criticised by both Republicans and Democrats, also entailed Israel halting its military operations in Lebanon. The deal, however, unravelled in early July after alleged violations on both sides.

Although the Donald Trump-led US administration has said that it will not return to the June agreement, Iranian officials in New York have engaged in diplomatic talks with the US on the sidelines of the UNGA.

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According to Araghchi, Iran’s new proposal sets the following terms:

• All hostilities, including in Lebanon, would end during the seven days,
• The US would waive sanctions on Iranian oil, release the country’s frozen assets (estimated to be at least $12 billion), and lift its naval blockade on Iran, and
• On day seven, the Strait of Hormuz would be opened.

Iran would immediately put the plan into effect once the US agreed to it, Araghchi said.

US midterms

On Tuesday (September 22), US President Donald Trump said in his address to the UNGA that Iran’s government was stalling on striking a deal until after the US midterm elections in November in the hope that Trump’s Republican Party would lose power. He added that if Iran did not agree to his terms, he could drive the Iranians “into hell with no chance of survival and no hope of future greatness or generations”.

Even though Trump said that “when it comes to Iran, [the election] doesn’t even enter my mind” and has made similar statements in the past, anger over soaring fuel prices caused by the West Asia conflict could be a pressing issue for many voters. Petrol and diesel prices in the US have hit record highs even as Trump’s approval ratings have hit new lows.

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Presently, the Republicans control both Houses of the US Congress — the Senate and the House of Representatives. Recent polling suggests that the Democrats hold a modest advantage over the incumbents just over a month ahead of the midterm elections.

Araghchi seemed to indicate as much when he said that “it would be better” if both sides reached an agreement before the November elections, although he insisted that Tehran was “not in a hurry”.

“I think it would be much better if it is done before the midterm election, but it depends on the US administration to decide. We don’t care about the timing,” the Iranian foreign minister said. “But the plan is very clear. The moment they accept this plan, from the next day, this timetable can start, and after seven days, the strait will be open.”

Iran’s economic strain

As the war has progressed, Iran’s economy has come under serious strain. Iranians are suffering from skyrocketing food inflation, a shortage of medicines, and disruptions to trade and commerce.

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Even after Trump’s speech at the UNGA, representatives of both Iran and the US held talks via Qatari intermediaries. A White House official, declining to comment on Iran’s proposal, told the Financial Times that the US and Iran “are having positive and constructive discussions through the mediators”. The Iranians, however, indicated they were not optimistic that the US would stick to any agreement.

Trump now needs to consider the benefits of a deal with Iran before November as opposed to keeping up the pressure to procure further gains. 

The White House official said, “The United States is in a very strong position with control of the Strait of Hormuz, so we are not in a rush. Nearly 22 million barrels of oil left the Strait last night.”

Ali Vaez, the Iran director of the global think-tank International Crisis Group, said that Iran’s proposal was a “smart move”. “They know it’s very tempting for President Trump because it ends an unpopular war and brings down energy prices in the run-up to the midterms. But it also restores a deal that was largely favorable to the Iranians. A compressed timeline to get to the nuclear issue should be appealing to an impatient president,” he told The New York Times.