Iran’s attacks on American warships outside the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. retaliatory strikes on three Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf waters mark another phase of escalation in the six-month-long war between the two countries. After the collapse of the June 17 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), which sought to resolve the conflict through talks, both sides have carried out tit-for-tat attacks. Last month, U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to shift the focus of his Iran policy from military strikes to economic warfare, announcing new sanctions and tightening the U.S. Navy’s blockade of Iran’s ports. The U.S. also managed to get some oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz through a southern route along the Omani coast. But Iran, which still maintains its chokehold over the waterway, continued to target vessels taking the southern route. Unable to find a way out, the U.S. returned to strikes, triggering Iranian attacks on American bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan. The latest escalation is significant because it is the first time in months that Iran has attacked U.S. military vessels, apparently seeking to break the blockade. By targeting Iranian tankers in retaliation, the U.S. has also crossed a red line. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that it had struck six vessels in the Gulf — three tankers and three U.S.-linked ships — in retaliation for the American attacks on oil tankers, and vowed to expand their strikes against U.S. ships.

The central focus of the war today, which the U.S. and Israel launched on February 28 in the name of destroying Iran’s nuclear programme and bringing about regime change in Tehran, is the Strait of Hormuz. That Tehran forced the U.S. to fight over a problem it created rather than pursue Washington’s original objective is, in itself, a strategic victory for Iran. The frequent clashes and counter-clashes underscore two points. First, the U.S. does not have a clear theory of victory. Neither its military effort nor its economic warfare has forced Iran to change its position. The Strait remains unsafe, while the toll on the global economy is mounting. What the Trump administration appears to be doing is ‘mowing the lawn’, taken straight out of the Israeli playbook, with the aim of blunting Iran’s attack capabilities. But each time, Iran retaliates, pursuing its own ‘debasification’ strategy, pushing U.S. military presence away from its immediate periphery. Second, Iran, despite its economic woes, has emerged more assertive. The more the U.S. seeks to trap Iran in an economic gridlock, the less risk-averse Tehran appears to be. As both sides seek escalation dominance, the war risks spiralling out of control. America is visibly under pressure. Mr. Trump has to accept the cold fact that he has lost this war and return to reviving the MoU before it is too late.