Tropical Storm Karina is expected to become a hurricane, with forecasts indicating a path towards California.

Published on: Aug 28, 2026, 21:39:07 IST

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Tropical Storm Karina is now anticipated to intensify into a significant hurricane, as additional forecasting models indicate a potentially harmful trajectory towards California.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has disclosed that Karina, which presently has sustained winds exceeding 50 mph, is projected to attain hurricane status as soon as Friday night, Daily Mail reported.

Tropical Storm Karina to evolve into Category 3 hurricane

By Sunday morning, predictions suggest that the massive cyclone will evolve into a Category 3 hurricane, characterized by winds surpassing 111 mph.

New spaghetti models, which monitor all potential trajectories of tropical storms and hurricanes, show various paths that could lead Karina directly to the California Coast, potentially affecting millions of Americans.

Initial forecasts from the American model, referred to as GFS, presented several scenarios for a significant landfall in either San Diego or Los Angeles.

Conversely, the European model, commonly known as the EPS Ensemble, expressed more doubt regarding a US landfall on Thursday, suggesting that Karina would remain offshore and drift out to sea.

Is there any threat to Southern California?

Nonetheless, both models received updates on Friday, and they now suggest possible trajectories toward Southern California and regions further north.

According to the National Weather Service, California has never experienced a hurricane making landfall in its recorded history, and the most recent instance of a tropical storm directly affecting the state occurred in 1997.

Tropical Storm Karina is presently located less than 1,400 miles to the south of San Diego and is advancing northwest at a speed of 13 mph, well offshore from the Mexican coast.

National Hurricane Center issues warning

Despite being situated far from the shore, the National Hurricane Center has issued a warning that tropical storm-force winds from this large cyclone extend over 200 miles from its center.

Meteorological authorities anticipate the onset of swells along the southwestern coast of Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula beginning this weekend, which may result in life-threatening rip currents for those swimming.

Rip currents are powerful, narrow streams of water that rapidly move away from the shore, frequently dragging swimmers into the ocean. These currents can be fatal as they carry individuals into deeper waters, depleting their strength as they struggle against the flow.

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