For decades, India’s population story was largely about rapid growth and the need to bring down birth rates. Now, another demographic shift is taking shape: families are getting smaller, parenthood is being delayed, and fertility rates are falling across much of the country.

The trend came into focus after Zerodha co-founder Nithin Kamath shared a post pointing to projections that every Indian state could fall below the replacement fertility rate by 2039, with Bihar expected to be the last to reach that level. He also highlighted the association between fertility, income, and education, and asked whether India could grow old before it grows rich. Kamath’s predictions were based on a report by Data For India.

But a falling fertility rate is not as simple as fewer babies being born. It reflects changing family patterns, education, urbanisation, marriage, and parenthood being delayed, economic considerations and access to contraception. And while a prolonged decline can eventually alter the country’s age structure, it should not be confused with infertility among individuals.

Story continues below this ad

What is replacement fertility?

India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has steadily declined, with several southern states below replacement level, while Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand remain above it

Replacement fertility refers to the average number of children needed per woman for one generation to broadly replace the preceding generation, assuming no migration.

In most societies, this level is estimated at around 2.1 children per woman. “In most societies, this figure is expected to be 2.1 children for each woman,” Dr Aviva Pinto Rodrigues, Clinical Director and Senior Fertility Specialist at Nova IVF Fertility, Basaveshwarnagar, Bengaluru, tells indianexpress.com.

Importantly, falling below 2.1 does not mean the population immediately begins to decline. Population change also depends on the existing age structure, mortality, and migration. A country with a relatively young population can continue to grow even after its fertility rate has fallen below replacement level.

Story continues below this ad

Why is fertility falling?

India’s total fertility rate (TFR) has been declining steadily, although the pace differs considerably between states.


Dr Rodrigues attributes the decline to several factors, including increased education, contraception, urbanisation, later marriage, and changing aspirations.

Dr Sandhya Ghode, Consultant–Infertility Specialist at Motherhood Fertility and IVF, Jeevanbhima Nagar Clinic, and Indiranagar, Bengaluru, echoes this and describes the change as the result of social, economic, and biological factors.

People are increasingly prioritising higher education, career stability and financial independence, which can mean marriage and parenthood happen later. At the same time, urban living can make raising children more expensive, particularly when housing, childcare and other costs are taken into account.

This shift is visible in metropolitan areas, Dr Rodrigues says. “Earlier, couples having two children was a norm, where the second pregnancy used to come naturally after the first pregnancy. But today, there are many couples who have decided to have only one child or delay the decision to have another child because of their careers, high housing prices, the high cost of living, and childcare costs,” he says.

Story continues below this ad

In other words, a lower TFR does not tell us why a family is having fewer children. A smaller family may be the result of a deliberate decision, changing circumstances or delayed parenthood.

How do education and income fit into the picture?

The postponement of parenthood makes it necessary for couples to conceive when their natural fertility becomes lower than before. Therefore, we would like to stress upon early fertility education of the male and female alike: Dr Rodrigues

Fertility and factors such as education and income are closely associated, but the relationship is not simply that higher income automatically means fewer children.

Education can influence family planning, marriage, and the use of contraception, while economic circumstances can affect decisions about when to have children and how many children a family feels able to raise.

Dr Rodrigues says education and awareness about reproductive health can also help people make informed family-planning decisions.

Story continues below this ad

“Women’s education and awareness towards contraception can play a very critical role. These factors help prevent unwanted pregnancies, better awareness of reproductive health and options like egg freezing, which can help women make informed choices and approach family planning in a planned manner.”

The broader point is that fertility patterns change alongside social and economic conditions. A national TFR is therefore not a measure of whether people are “succeeding” or “failing” at having children; it is a measure of the average number of children being born within a population.

Falling TFR and infertility are not the same thing

One of the easiest ways to misunderstand the fertility debate is to treat low fertility and infertility as the same issue. They are not.

TFR is a demographic measure: it describes patterns of childbearing across a population. Infertility is a reproductive-health issue involving difficulty conceiving when a pregnancy is desired.

Story continues below this ad

However, delayed parenthood can bring age-related fertility considerations into the picture.

“Simultaneously, the postponement of parenthood makes it necessary for couples to conceive when their natural fertility becomes lower than before. Therefore, we would like to stress early fertility education for the male and female alike,” says Dr Rodrigues.

Dr Nayana D H, Consultant – IVF at Aster Whitefield Hospital, Bengaluru, also points to this distinction. While some people postpone parenthood because of education, careers, or financial considerations, she says others may later find themselves unable to conceive because of age and require fertility treatment.

Dr Ghode similarly notes that age is an important biological determinant of reproduction, with fertility and egg quality changing with age.

Story continues below this ad

That makes fertility education relevant at an individual level—not because people should be told when they must become parents, but because understanding the biology can help people make informed decisions about timing and family planning.

What happens if fertility stays below replacement for a long time?

The crucial aspect, however, is to be able to distinguish between having voluntarily smaller families and involuntarily suffering from infertility: Dr Nayana D H

The demographic consequences of a sustained decline are gradual rather than immediate.

“If TFR stays below the replacement level of 2.1 for a long time, there will be fewer children who will take the place of those people who get older. It may cause a shortage of the working-age population and put additional pressure on healthcare, pensions, and social benefits,” Dr Nayana tells indianexpress.com.

Over several decades, persistently low fertility can therefore change the age composition of a population. Smaller younger generations eventually mean a relatively smaller working-age population, while longer life expectancy means a growing share of older people.

Story continues below this ad

That can affect everything from the demand for healthcare and eldercare to pensions, social support, and the composition of the workforce.

Japan is often cited as an example of this transition. Its combination of “very low fertility, high life expectancy, and a shrinking working-age population” has contributed to significant economic, social and healthcare challenges.


India, however, is at a different stage. India’s fertility story is not uniform. India remains a relatively young country, and fertility varies substantially between regions.

Dr Rodrigues notes that several southern states have fertility rates below the replacement level, while states including Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Jharkhand have remained above it.

This regional difference matters because India will not experience demographic ageing in exactly the same way or at the same pace everywhere.

Story continues below this ad

The projection that all states could eventually fall below replacement fertility therefore represents a long-term demographic transition, rather than an immediate national population decline.

What should we take away from the falling numbers?

A declining TFR does not, by itself, signal a crisis. It tells us that patterns of family formation are changing.


People are marrying later, spending longer in education, planning careers, using contraception and, in many cases, choosing smaller families. Economic conditions, urban living, and the cost of raising children can also influence those decisions.

At the same time, prolonged below-replacement fertility can eventually produce a different demographic challenge: an older population and a smaller proportion of people in the working-age groups—just as Kamath’s post suggested.

For reproductive health, the conversation is separate but connected. When parenthood is delayed, people benefit from understanding how age affects fertility, while those who experience difficulty conceiving may need appropriate medical support.

The important thing is not to reduce a complicated demographic transition to a question of how many children people “should” have. India’s fertility story is ultimately about changing family patterns, longer lives, reproductive choices and a population moving gradually from being predominantly young towards a more age-diverse society.

By 2039, every Indian state will fall below the replacement fertility rate, with Bihar being the last to cross this milestone. The evidence shows that fertility is tightly linked to income and education. Poorer and less educated populations tend to have more children and vice… pic.twitter.com/HZkWgka12R

— Nithin Kamath (@Nithin0dha) July 13, 2026

https://platform.x.com/widgets.js